A changing world…

This is one of the most amazing graphs we’ve come across in a long time. We found it in the United Nations Urbanization Prospect 2007. It shows the distribution of the world’s population in 1950, 2007 and the predictons for 2050.

Take a look at some of the most stunning figures:
1) In 1950, no less than 38% of the world population lived in Europe, and 15% in Northern America. In 2050, that will be 9% and 6%.
2) During the same period, the percentage of the world population living in Asia will rise from 32 to 54%
3) Africa is gaining importance quickly: 4% of the world population in 1950, against 19% in 2050

Some powerfull data to support the importance of the emerging megacities in Central and Western China, we would say…

Comparing urbanization in China and India – McKinsey Quarterly – Economic Studies – Country Reports

The McKinsey Quarterly published an article by Richard Dobbs and Shirish Sankhe in which they compare urbanization in China and India. The nice thing about consultants – also these ones – is that they love figures. Some excerpts of the article:

from 2005 to 2025, India will need to add 700 million to 900 million square meters of floor space a year; in China, the required numbers could be 1,600 million to 1,900 million square meters.

..and..

During the same period, India will need to add at least 350 to 400 kilometers of metropolitan railways and subways annually, while the corresponding number in China will be closer to 1,000 kilometers.

..moreover..

While India spends $17 per capita on capital investments in urban infrastructure annually, China spends $116.

But there is also more qualitative analysis:

While India has barely paid attention to its urban transformation, China has developed a set of internally consistent practices across every element of the urbanization operating model: funding, governance, planning, sectoral policies, and the shape, or pattern, of urbanization, both across the nation as a whole and within cities themselves.

Read the whole article here: Comparing urbanization in China and India – McKinsey Quarterly – Economic Studies – Country Reports.

China News: China’s Urban Dwellers to Exceed Rural Population | China Digital Times (CDT)

China News: China’s Urban Dwellers to Exceed Rural Population | China Digital Times (CDT).

China Daily: China’s cities to receive massive influx

Some 300 million Chinese now living in rural areas — the equivalent of the entire population of the United States — will move into cities in the coming 15 to 20 years, said a senior Chinese official Wednesday.

China’s cities to receive massive influx.

China Urbanization: Preparing for an Urban Billion

For our project, we also make use of the extensive research ‘Preparing for China’s urban billion’ by the McKinsey Global Institute. They also made a beautiful infographic, to explain the urbanization in Chinese cities in different models, over time.  Look at this:

China Urbanization: Preparing for an Urban Billion.

Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2008

The end to rampant urbanization in China?

This article Shanghaiist by Elaine Chow, June 17,  suggests that the current downturn might be a stimulus for improving quality in urban development in China.

The end to rampant urbanization in China?

One of the most worrisome aspects of the last couple years in China has been its overly rapid development of urban areas – the nonstop construction of skyscrapers, high-rises, highways – and the sometimes careless disregard for its environmental and social impact. At least now it seems like someone in the government is recognizing the problem, to the point of calling the current economic downturn a great opportunity to refocus on other priorities.

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a central government think tank, released the Blue Book of Cities in China on Monday, which detailed the happenings of China’s 118 megalopolises (defined by cities housing over 1 million people).

Read the rest of this entry »

A window to the future

On the west side of the river Fen in Taiyuan, a part of the city center will be realized: a culture island with 5 public buildings containing a diverse program. This is the current situation.

Moving to the city

Chinese economist Andy Xie presents his view on how China should become the leading world economy within two decades in a column in China International Business. Like other economists he thinks China should shift from a producer of cheap manufactured goods into a consumption-driven economy. The anchor is urbanisation, he says. China should aim to increase its urbanization to 75% in the next 20 years.

China’s urbanization strategy should focus on building 30 mega-cities of more than 20 million residents each. These cities would have the right to issue bonds to fund their development. Because infrastructure in these cities would benefit from an economy of scale, the environment and job market would benefit, and the cities would have enough tax revenue to pay off their bonds [...] Basically, China should turn its urbanization into a sponge for global capital. Shifting the rural population into big cities is the only way for the nation to modernize.

It’s always hard not to be impressed by numbers in China. Thirty mega-cities of more than 20 million inhabitants. Where will they be located? And how will they be able to function? A lot of questions waiting to be answered.